Chapter 02: Climate and climate change on the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract

The expectation of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is not new. Since Svante Arrhenius in the late 19th century suggested that changing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere could alter global temperatures and Callendar presented evidence that such changes were already occurring, we have continued conducting a global-scale experiment with our climate system. This experiment, which began with the Industrial Revolution in the mid 18th century, is now having regional consequences for climate and ecosystems worldwide including northeast Australia and the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). This chapter provides the foundation for assessing the vulnerability of the GBR to global climate change. This chapter outlines the current understanding of climate change science and regional climate conditions, and their observed and projected changes for northeast Australia and the GBR.